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Weather Analysis and Forecasting II

Code: 45545
ECTS: 4.0
Lecturers in charge: dr. sc. Kristian Horvath
Lecturers: dr. sc. Kristian Horvath - Exercises
Take exam: Studomat
Load:

1. komponenta

Lecture typeTotal
Lectures 30
Exercises 15
* Load is given in academic hour (1 academic hour = 45 minutes)
Description:
The main goal is to teach students about traditional and modern methods for the weather analysis. Knowledge of such kind is necessary for all areas of theoretical and practical meteorology: deployment of measurements, data analysis as well as weather nowcasting and forecasting. In this purpose, it is necessary within this course to:
- Define and describe subjective and objective methods of weather forecasting
- Describe the hydrodynamic equations in different coordinate systems
- Define and describe numerical methods for numerical solving of hydrodynamic equations
- Define and describe the operation principle of particular atmospheric numerical models
- Describe and define special weather forecasts
- Define and describe methods for verification of weather forecasts.

COURSE CONTENT:
1. Subjective way of weather forecasting. Objective methods of weather forecasting: deterministic, stochastic and deterministic-stochastic approach.
2. The governing equations of the atmosphere in different co-ordinate systems - generalised coordinates.
3. Spherical coordinates
4. Tangential and map projections.
5. Review of numerical methods for solving the governing equations: method of final differences
6. Methods of function expansion into series: spectral method.
7. Metod of final elements
8. Non-linear numerical nonstability and filtering (low-pass and bandpass filters)
9. Initialisation of numerical models: equilibrium equations, normal modes, 4-dimensional
variational analysis. Boundary conditions.
10. Barotropic limited area model in conic map
projection.
11. Six-layer hemispheric forecasting model with primitive equations. Global spectral model of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
12. Introducing with the regional models ALADIN (Aire Limitee Adaptation et Development International)
13. Stochastic (regression) approach to the weather forecasting. Analogy method. Deterministic-stochastic approach: atmospheric predictability, ensemble forecasts.
14. Subjective interpretation of the prognostic model outputs. Regression way of interpretation (Method
output Statistic, perfect Prognosis). Adaptive deterministic models (e.g. adaptation of airflow to the orography).
15. Forecasts for special applications. Verification of the forecasts.

LEARNING MODE:
Attending teaching of the theory and exercises, studying of the literature and notes, deriving equations and analysis of the examples, independently solving problems.

TEACHING METHODS:
Theory, exercises, encouraging students to explore the literature by themselves, solving the problems independently.

METHODS OF MONITORING AND VERIFICATION:
The progress of students is monitored and evaluated during the course (homework, oral presentations and other assignments) and on the final oral exam.

TERMS FOR RECEIVING THE SIGNATURE:
Homework reports; attending the classes at least for 50 %

EXAMINATION METHODS:
The oral exam consists of written preparation and its oral presentation/discussion. Here the level of formal adoption of course topics (especially their understanding) is evaluated, observing the professional terminology.
Literature:
  1. Haltiner, G.J. and R.T. Williams, 1980: Numerical weather prediction. John Wiley & Sons, New York. 477 pp.
  2. Kalney, E., 2003: Atmospheric modeling, data assimilation and predictability. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. 341 pp.
  3. Mesinger, F. and A. Arakawa, 1976: Numerical models in atmospheric models. Volume I. GARP Publication Series No. 17, WMO, Geneve. 135 pp.
  4. Pielke R.A. and R.P. Pearce, 1994: Mesoscale modeling of the atmosphere. American Meteorological Society, Boston. 167 pp.
  5. Radinović, Đ., 1979: Prognoza vremena. Univerzitet u Beogradu. Beograd. 266 str.
  6. Zdunkowski, W. and A. Bott, 2003: Dynamics of the atmosphere - A course in theoretical meteorology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 719 pp.
  7. Haltiner, G.J., 1971: Numerical weather prediction. John Wiley & Sons, New York,
    317 pp.
  8. Houghton, D.D, 1985: Handbook of applied meteorology. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1461 pp.
  9. Petterssen, S., 1956: Weather analysis and forecasting (Vol. I and II). McGraw- Hill, New York, 428 (266) pp.
  10. Richardson, L.F., 1922: Weather prediction by numerical process. Cambridge University Press, London, 236 pp.
  11. Riley, M.P., Hobson, M.P. and S.J. Bence, 1998: Mathematical methods for physics and enginering. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1008 pp.
  12. Zverev, A.S., 1977: Sinoptičeskaja meteorologia. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, 710 pp.
3. semester
Mandatory course - Regular study - Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
Consultations schedule: