C3PO

Climate and weather extremes are becoming stronger and more frequent in many regions as a result of global climate change. The only available tools for assessing future extreme changes are climate models. Although state-of-the-art climate models can reproduce some extremes, there is a large group of events that cannot be accurately simulated, such as extreme rainfall or local storms. This project utilizes a new generation of climate models, known as convection-permitting models, to significantly improve the reproduction of extremes, with particular added value for extreme rainfall and local events such as urban heatwaves and mountain winds. These models are increasingly used in research and applications because this is the first time that climate models can provide a realistic assessment of future changes in extreme rainfall. However, these models require too many computational resources to be used as tools for providing climate information to users and stakeholders. This is because an important component of climate change information is the estimation of uncertainty, which requires a large set of individual simulations. In this project, we offer a solution to this obstacle by developing a methodology for climate simulations of specific short-term extreme events only, which can reduce computational costs by about 50 times and thus free up enough resources for accurate uncertainty assessment. As a result, C3PO (i) introduces a new generation of climate models as a common tool for Croatian climate research and applications, (ii) combines academic, operational, and user-oriented activities into a joint and internationally competitive framework, and (iii) offers innovative and general solutions for applying these models in impact assessment and risk studies for various stakeholders such as urban planners and governmental bodies.