Doktorski seminar - Sarah Ivušić

O B A V I J E S T

SARAH IVUŠIĆ

održat će znanstveni kolokvij (doktorski seminar) iz geofizike pod naslovom

Extreme precipitation over the Adriatic region and Dinarides in simulations by regional climate models

The coastal mountainous eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps regions are Mediterranean hotspots for heavy precipitation events (HPEs), which often cause severe damage. Accurately representing these events at different time scales and projecting their future evolution using regional climate models (RCMs) remains a critical challenge.
This study evaluates the impact of model configuration on the representation of extreme daily precipitation at climatological (1979–2012) and event (HPEs) scales, alongside the effects of the spectral nudging (SN) technique. Two configurations of the CNRM-ALADIN RCM are compared, with sensitivity tests conducted on specific parameters. Simulations are driven by the ERA-Interim re-analysis over the Med-CORDEX domain at a 0.11° horizontal resolution. Results show that updated physical parameterisations of moist processes improve precipitation representation at both climatological and event scales, enhancing precipitation intensity, frequency, and occurrence and spatial patterns of HPEs. Spectral nudging further improves the temporal variability of precipitation at climatological scales and the occurrence and location of HPEs. These advancements in physical parameterisations lead to a reduction of uncertainties in future climate projections.
The study also explores climate change projections for mean and extreme precipitation across the Dinaric Alps and Adriatic coastal area until the late 21st century, using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble under three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. Historical simulations show the ensemble effectively represents spatial variability and seasonal variations but exhibits biases across the Dinaric Alps, particularly wet biases in winter and autumn and dry biases in summer. Projections indicate a changing precipitation regime: winter precipitation is expected to increase over northern lowlands, summer precipitation will decrease in southern regions, and spring and autumn will show minimal change across the Dinaric Alps. Extreme precipitation events are projected to intensify and occur more frequently during winter and autumn, especially in lowlands. At the same time, results for summer show greater uncertainty but suggest an intensification of precipitation within fewer events.

Seminar će se održati u srijedu 11. prosinca 2024. godine u 13:00 sati u predavaonici P1 Geofizičkog odsjeka Prirodoslovno-matematičkog fakulteta Sveučilišta u Zagrebu.

Pozivaju se studenti doktorskog studija Fizike, smjer Geofizika, da prisustvuju seminaru, ako nisu spriječeni.

Voditeljica smjera:

Prof. dr. sc. Ivana Herceg Bulić, v. r.